Motorists should brace for another round of mixed fuel price adjustments next week, as the global oil market continues to drive fluctuations at the local pumps. Based on the latest monitoring, gasoline users may face higher costs, while diesel and kerosene consumers can expect some relief.
Expected Adjustments in Fuel Prices
According to preliminary estimates from the Department of Energy (DOE), fuel companies are likely to implement the following changes starting Tuesday:
- Gasoline: Increase of ₱0.40 to ₱0.60 per liter
- Diesel: Rollback of ₱0.70 to ₱0.90 per liter
- Kerosene: Rollback of ₱0.90 to ₱1.10 per liter
These figures are based on four-day trading results in the international market. Final price advisories are expected from oil firms on Monday, with adjustments to take effect the following day.
Reasons Behind the Price Movements
Expanding Global Supply
Recent announcements from OPEC+ confirm an increase in oil production for September. Non-OPEC countries such as Brazil, Norway, and Guyana have also expanded their output, leading to higher global supply. This has exerted downward pressure on diesel and kerosene, which are more sensitive to inventory surpluses.
Changing Demand Trends
While gasoline consumption remains firm in urban areas due to heavy reliance on private vehicles, diesel demand has weakened in some regions because of slower industrial activity. Kerosene usage has also softened, particularly in households that have shifted to alternative energy sources.
Market Sentiment and Geopolitics
Improved trade relations between the United States and China, as well as speculations of a possible US interest rate cut, have supported gasoline prices. Meanwhile, ongoing geopolitical discussions involving the US and Russia are weighing on the diesel and kerosene markets.
Impact on Consumers
The projected rollback in diesel prices will be welcomed by public transport operators and logistics firms that heavily depend on fuel for operations. Lower expenses in this sector could help ease potential fare hikes and delivery costs.
Households that use kerosene for daily needs may also benefit from the expected reduction, which could help stretch household budgets. On the other hand, motorists driving gasoline-powered cars should prepare for slightly higher fuel bills, though the increase is relatively modest compared to past hikes.
Broader Economic Implications
Fuel costs have a direct impact on the transportation sector, which in turn affects the movement of goods and commuters. Cheaper diesel may provide temporary relief to jeepney, bus, and trucking operators, while rising gasoline prices could squeeze individual motorists in urban areas.
Businesses relying on fuel for operations, including small enterprises and courier services, are expected to feel mixed effects. While they may save on diesel-powered vehicles, they could face additional expenses if their fleets run on gasoline.
Recent Price Movements
Fuel prices have remained unstable in recent months. Just last August 12, oil firms implemented rollbacks of ₱0.40 per liter for gasoline, ₱1.50 for diesel, and ₱1.30 for kerosene. These frequent adjustments underline how unpredictable global oil markets can be, with prices shifting week by week depending on supply and demand dynamics.
Outlook for the Coming Weeks
Analysts expect the mixed price scenario to continue in the near term. Rising oil supply is likely to keep diesel and kerosene prices from climbing too sharply, while gasoline may remain vulnerable to upward adjustments due to steady demand.
Consumers are advised to plan fuel usage wisely and stay alert to weekly advisories, as unforeseen developments such as conflicts, economic changes, or sudden policy shifts could quickly alter market trends.